Donald Trump might face the situation of being under house arrest in the White House if he wins the presidency again.
Kenneth McCallion, a former assistant prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice and New York State Attorney General’s Office, indicated that Trump, now convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records, could be confined to the presidential residence.
The conviction stems from a New York jury’s verdict on charges related to a hush money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. This makes Trump the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes, with sentencing scheduled for July 11, just before the Republican National Convention.
McCallion, in an interview with Salon, called the verdict “largely bullet-proof” and noted that Trump’s anticipated appeal would struggle due to a lack of trial errors that could justify overturning the verdict.
He suggested that to avoid jail time, Trump would need to show remorse and seek the court’s mercy, which he views as unlikely given Trump’s consistent claims of political persecution.
Trump’s legal team plans to appeal the conviction, but experts, including McCallion, believe the appeal is likely to fail. McCallion stated that Trump’s best chance to avoid prison is to be reelected as president, emphasizing that while a president can only commute federal crimes, Trump might argue his case as politically motivated persecution to garner public support.
Fordham Law School professor Cheryl Bader warned that if Trump were sentenced to house arrest in the White House, it would lead to a constitutional crisis, requiring significant accommodations.
She stated the difficulty in predicting the sentence, pointing out that his first-time offense and advanced age (77) make a prison sentence less likely. Bader also noted that any sentence would likely be delayed during the appeal process.
Barbara McQuade, former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, emphasized the complexity of predicting a prison sentence due to factors both for and against Trump. She mentioned that regardless of the sentence, Trump is unlikely to serve time until after the election, as appeals could extend beyond the next presidential term.
Greg Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University, suggested that a prison sentence for Trump would create legal challenges and potential constitutional crises, advocating for probation or a stayed sentence pending appeal. Michael Dimino of Widener University and former Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. also expressed doubts about Trump facing imprisonment, considering the potential constitutional complications.
