OPEC+ has lowered Nigeria’s oil production target for 2024 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), from its previous target of 1.74 million bpd.
The move comes as the group of oil-producing countries seeks to manage supply and demand in the global oil market.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has struggled to meet its production quotas in recent years due to underinvestment and security issues. However, the country’s output has picked up in recent months, helped by more production offshore.
OPEC+ also lowered Angola’s oil production target for 2024 to 1.11 million bpd, from its previous target of 1.28 million bpd. Congo’s target for 2024 is roughly in line with what was agreed in June.
The new production targets are subject to revision at the next OPEC+ meeting, which is scheduled for December.
Nigeria could potentially reach 1.5 million bpd in crude output next year without any significant disruptions, yet achieving this seems unlikely due to the maturity and decline of most of Nigeria’s oil fields.
James Forbes, an analyst from FGE, noted that Nigeria’s maximum crude output this year hovered around 1.51 million bpd, highlighting that achieving these targets would require optimal operation across all fields—an improbable scenario given the country’s oil field maturity and decline trend.
