Authors Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, in their 2019 book ‘Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline,’ challenged the conventional view of overpopulation, predicting a decline in global population.
However, the narrative shifts when examining Africa’s population growth, which is expected to double by 2050, with an estimated annual growth rate of 2.5% in 2021.
Despite the positive potential in harnessing Africa’s youthful population for economic growth, caution is warranted.
While the relationship between population growth and economic growth in Africa appears positive but weak, challenges persist.
The continent’s labour force growth lags behind its overall population increase, resulting in a high dependency ratio of about 80%, well above the global average of 55%.
This mismatch between population and workforce growth implies missed economic opportunities.
If the workforce had expanded proportionally to the working-age population, Africa’s per capita income growth could have been higher, potentially contributing an additional $47 billion to the continent’s GDP.
Infrastructure strain is another concern as rapid population growth demands increased resources. Inadequate infrastructure, including poorly maintained roads and ports, hampers productivity, leading to a significant rise in the cost of traded goods between African countries.
Moreover, the impact of population growth on climate change is substantial. Studies indicate that rising population pressure is a primary factor causing environmental damage in Africa.
Addressing the adverse effects of population pressure on infrastructure, coupled with improved economic governance and increased investment in basic infrastructure, is crucial for Africa’s sustainable development.
The African Development Bank recognizes these challenges and commits to leading the continent towards climate resilience and an equitable energy transition.
As Africa grapples with the complexities of population growth, careful consideration and strategic planning are essential to unlock the full economic potential while mitigating associated risks.
